As we start to stumble in a state of fatigue towards the end of 2009, I have started to think about what 2010 will bring. Trying to predict events and challenges for the forthcoming 12 months is a bit like throwing chicken giblets at the wall and trying to interpret the patterns. You just cannot be sure which is going to stick and which will fall to the floor. But hey, that’s the fun. So, here’s my list of Top Ten Tech Predictions for 2010.

  1. Google Wave will die in Google Labs as people will never be able to figure out how to benefit from a tool which has been described as “Quantum Leap in Online Collaboration”. I’ve used almost all tools that Google has released and some of them have actually made my life simpler. I guess that’s what their audience has come to expect of them, Simplicity. But by releasing Wave, they’ve underestimated the threshold for user frustration for tool which is not that intuitive.  I got an invite couple of months ago and have given it several chances, but it’s still a no-go. In one of the waves, one of the users actually wrote “What does this thing do?”. I still don’t have the answer.
  2. Microsoft’s Cloud Applications will disappoint. This may be a bias going back to when Bill Gates said the Internet would never take off but I have always felt that Microsoft never took cloud based systems seriously and I feel the current online apps builds will fall by the wayside. This is not only because Google and Zoho have a generous head start but because MS seems to be aiming its product at existing PC based users and not embracing new adopters and it’s the latter that will make the market.
  3. Google’s Chrome Browser will take off. Well, it will, once it makes it easy for plug-ins to be added for greater functionality. Let’s face it, Chrome is fast and the latest beta is stunningly quick but I rarely use it because I use Firefox’s easy plug in system. With Chrome it’s like having to sacrifice a goat and a few chickens to assorted heathen deities -it really is that primitive.
  4. Windows 7 will take everyone by surprise and work! I’ll be honest I quite like XP. Having suffered the growth of Windows from 3.11 I thought XP worked well and I only suffered one or two crashes in all the years I ran it. However, after the appalling travesty that was Vista and judging by various feedbacks and trade reports, it looks as though Windows 7 might just cut the mustard.
  5. The Netbook craze will die down. People will start buying new “in-between” devices that are slightly larger and more powerful than today’s netbooks, but smaller, more lightweight and cheaper than regular notebooks. Features like better processors, separate GPUs and SSD HD options set these new “ultra portable” devices apart from the traditional netbook, but they’re still often called “netbooks” because of their size. Market confusion ensues.
  6. Cloud Computing will go through a shake out. There are just too many companies out there for the market to sustain. The big players will go on a buying spree. The consolidation will deeply affect users. Some companies will fold overnight. Users will lose access to their data, leading to a whole new wave of skepticism about cloud computing. But it won’t be enough to slow down the move to cloud computing. More companies will consider the security risks as less of a factor, compared to the cost benefits and potential for innovation. Cloud computing technology will become more of a commodity. The business applications for cloud computing will take center stage.
  7. Oracle-Sun Microsystems deal will close. Mindful of not incurring excessive wrath from the open-source community, Oracle will not kill off MySQL. Instead, it will be inserted into a stack along with Oracle’s Unbreakable Linux, pitted against Microsoft SQL Server.
  8. Intel will be taken down a notch. The U.S. Department of Justice will file antitrust charges against Intel, with state attorneys general joining in while the U.S. Federal Trade Commission pursues its own action against the chip maker and the E.U. keeps up pressure there as well.
  9. Apple’s tablet/e-reader will be unveiled to great spectacle and fanfare in the first quarter of the year. Throngs will stand in line for long hours to be among the first to possess what we predict will be the device to which rivals aspire. Because it’s from Apple, it will have a cool design and user-friendly interface, and cost a load of money. 
  10. Android FTW! I expect Android to be the talk of the enterprise, especially if the Google Phone does make it to market. Such a phone would eliminate carrier costs and break down walled gardens that have limited application development.